Monday, July 18, 2022



The president of Uganda H.E Yoweri Kaguta Museveni after the Budget Speech showed the will to get to the Middle Income Status but the means have to be analysed further. Political will and commitment but “You don't award yourself marks in an assessment or Exam, you will be disappointed” simply because what you wish is not what you have at the time.

The method of assessment was presented in the first World Development Report (World Bank, 1978), and its origins can be traced even further back. In 1965, for instance, a published essay “The Future of the World Bank” used gross national product (GNP) per capita to classify countries as very poor(low income), poor(lower middle income), middle income(upper middle income), and rich( high income) (Reid,1965) used since 1989. It divides countries into four groups and —using gross national income (GNI) per capita valued annually in US dollars using a three-year average exchange rate (World Bank, 1989) adjusted each year in line with price inflation. The classification is revised once a year on July 1, at the start of the World Bank fiscal year.

The World Bank uses the income classification in World Development Indicators (WDI) and other presentations of data; the main purpose is analysis.

World Bank is a Monitor for World development and continues to do the same work every year based on GNI per Capita in the selected countries.

The world's Middle Income Countries (MICs) are a diverse group by size, population, and income level. They are lower middle-income economies - those with a GNI per capita between $1,036 or UGX 3,833,200 and $4,045 or UGX 14,966,500; and upper middle-income economies - those with a GNI per capita between $4,046 UGX  14,966,500 and $12,535 or UGX 46,379,500 (2021). Middle income countries are home to 75% of the world’s population and 62% of the world’s poor. At the same time, MICs represent about one third of global GDP and are major engines of global growth.

Uganda's Total exports increased by 11.5 percent in February 2021 to US$ 413.6 million from US$ 370.8 million recorded in January 2021. Total imports flows increased by 21.3%

Uganda tax base 21.6 TN for the year ended June 2022 short of the 22.5TN Target from Domestic Taxes which is meant to finance Uganda’s budget of UGX 44tn for the Financial Year 2022/2023.

Debt standing at 52% of GDP, which puts the majority of the citizen’s financial status in limbo.

While lower MICs struggle with the provision of basic necessities, such as clean water and food, look at Karamoja.... 44 people dead because of hunger and yet Uganda is a home for food but planning is still a challenge where Human Rights Based Approach needs to be considered in allocation and distribution of resources.

A nation or state is as Good as her Population and as it stands The state of Health is still below the level of middle Income - Medicine so lacking, Mothers still dying while giving birth, Children dying of malnutrition, Social Services are still lacking in quality because of Capitalism than Socialism.

Education Standards determine the state of a nation. Nelson Mandela once said “Education is the great engine of personal development. It is through education that the daughter of a peasant can become a doctor, that the son of a mineworker can become the head of the mine; that a child of farm workers can become the president of a great nation” and “No country can really develop unless its citizens are educated”

Uganda still have issues with the Education policies; labs with no apparatus, schools with no structures, libraries with old books, limited access to internet in schools not mentioning the SRHR information and Sexuality Education.

Leaders need to look at production than consumption / dependence economy through practical experience. Where is the market? Agricultural products have no value, when is the value chain going to be improved? How are Industries and Factories regionally distributed?

Unemployment Rate in Uganda is expected to reach 3.10% by the end of 2022, while Kenya is already 2.5%, TZ 2.6%.

Upper MICs tend to face larger governance-related problems, such as rampant corruption, Monetization of elections/dictatorship


 ·         Industrial Development should be priority for income and social development considering the  Regional Hubs for industrialization.

 ·         Income gap among the citizenry should be translated into people's pockets. Improve the social services to the population and reduce expenditures on Health from out of pocket to Health Insurance

 ·         Inflationary tendencies - pricing and price controls and subsidies on the social services. The Government and Ministry of Finance can control this.

 ·         Human Rights based Approach should be key in the planning process. Do grassroots research for better management and ownership to ensure no one is left behind as opposed to the expert model where desk research is just done to complete the task with no grass root involvement and participation.

 ·         Increase the commitment to fight corruption in all MDAs and Systems and institute heavy punitive measures because corruption kills citizens.

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